A dry introduction to the weekend but not particularly cool
Yesterday’s wild weather over southern portions of the Old Dominion was triggered by the approach and passage of another strong July cold front. The result for Fredericksburg is a much dryer airmass today as shown by the brown shading in this water vapor satellite image:This dry air will yield plenty of clear skies today and tomorrow so July sunshine will do its solar radiation thing and provide some heat.
Temperatures today will top out in the mid-80s (still a couple of degrees below normal). However with dewpoints only in the upper 50s and low 60s today’s light northerly wind will feel refreshing. Saturday we’ll see thermometers rising to near the 90 degree mark but with increasing humidity as the moisture over the Midwest – represented by the blue shading in the satellite image – approaches the ‘Burg. Both days should remain rain-free although there could be a stray shower or two late Saturday afternoon or evening.
Sunday will be the boogeyman in this weekend’s weather outlook. An upper level short wave trough will cross the region overnight Saturday. As a result it’s looking like a mesoscale convective system will pound through the area Sunday morning. This is a fast-moving organized cluster of thunderstorms that can bring high winds, torrential rain, and even a tornado or two with it. (This is NOT the same as a derecho, which is a much larger weather phenomenon.) The Storm Prediction Center has already issued a risk for severe weather for our area Sunday as a result of this potential and more storms look to form late Sunday afternoon and evening as well.
Thus your weekend plans should take advantage of today’s and Saturday’s fine July weather because Sunday won’t be conducive to outdoor events. Stay weather aware especially on Sunday via several sources, including local media, a weather radio, and emergency messenging apps. Enjoy the weekend and be safe!!