By Chris White

Weather Blog: Since Fredericksburg resides "in the seam" between the Richmond VA and Washington DC media markets this blog is a look at the weather from a Fredericksburg-centric point of view.

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Somebody turned on the sauna

The heat is back starting today and will last through at least Thursday of this week. The thermometer will rise into the 90s and dewpoints will climb back into the uncomfortably sticky 70s to ring in the month of July so plan accordingly. This water vapor satellite image that I’ve annotated shows the reason why:wv image 30 JunThe yellow line “connects the dots” of several large low pressure systems that are following the jet stream. Note that the path of these systems is above the U.S./Canadian border. Thus the cooler refreshing Canadian air is locked up well north of Fredericksburg. (More below on the features circled in blue.)

Today – Monday – will feature more clouds than sun but that won’t keep things cool. However it does look like Fredericksburg will stay dry today even though thunderstorms will likely form over the mountains and trundle eastward. An “I-95 block” is in place thanks to high pressure lurking close enough offshore to squash storms that dare to approach the ‘Burg. Tomorrow that blocking feature will move further east and allow for at least a chance of storms to go along with temperatures that will climb into the mid-90s.

The heat and thunderstorm chances increase through Thursday as a cold front approaches from the west. That boundary will provide some cooler air for the Fourth festivities. However a complicating factor is the very likely development of Tropical Storm Arthur, the feature circled in blue off the southeastern U.S. coast in the above satellite image. (The other two circles in the eastern Pacific are Tropical Storm Douglas and likely Tropical Storm Elida. Of course those two won’t affect the ‘Burg!) This probable tropical storm is forecast to track very close to the Tidewater area on the Fourth and could dampen the festivities and fireworks displays.

This looks like it could be a busy period for heat, storms, and tropical activity. Stay tuned as the week progresses!!