By Chris White

Weather Blog: Since Fredericksburg resides "in the seam" between the Richmond VA and Washington DC media markets this blog is a look at the weather from a Fredericksburg-centric point of view.

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A new week and a raw deal for Fredericksburg

MORE: Read more news from Fredericksburg

UPDATE: A Flash Flood Watch has been issued for Fredericksburg for Tuesday evening through Wednesday night.

Well, that’s what some folks will feel about this week’s weather after our beautiful weekend in Fredericksburg. If you’ve been following the headlines late yesterday and this morning you’ve heard about the tragic loss of life due to severe weather to our west. Keep those folks in your prayers as they’re not out of the weeds yet given today’s severe outlook. But rest reassured that the ‘Burg won’t see the really severe stuff. However, a plethora of rain is on the way this week with some rumbles of thunder likely Wednesday.

So what’s creating the weather ruckus? This forecast surface map for 8 tonight shows the systems involved:94fwbgus

A strong double-barreled low pressure system (circled in black) is the main culprit, and it’s not moving anywhere quickly. Its forward progress is blocked by a strong high pressure system that is just off the northeast corner of this map. That same high pressure system is also creating another %#$%$&$% cold air damming wedge over Virginia as shown by the blue arrow. The wedge is keeping the severe weather at bay but will set up an “overrunning” rain event this week.

So what is overrunning? In the current setup the surface winds are from an easterly direction, bringing in cool moist air off the Atlantic. Meanwhile not far above us the winds ahead of the low pressure center are from the southwest, pumping Gulf of Mexico air northward. As this warm moisture-laden air is forced up and over the cool surface wedge it cools down. This process will squeeze out some impressive rain totals, perhaps several inches for Fredericksburg and vicinity.

The precipitation engine for the ‘Burg will get cranking by 3 this afternoon while high temperatures are suppressed to the low 60s under the thick cloud deck. Tomorrow the rain will intensify, the easterly winds will increase, and temperatures will again remain in the low 60s. Given the slow movement of this system rain and clouds will likely prevail through Thursday and sunshine will be in short supply ’til Friday. So like the blog title says, a raw deal is in the works.