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Quiet weather to start the week

Someone once asked me what I meant when stating the weather was “active.” The past couple of weeks served as a prime example of that descriptor. Forecasters were run ragged by multiple storms one after another with divergent model solutions to muddy the waters. This week forecasters are enjoying a break from that frantic pace and have only one storm mid-week to deal with…but I’m getting ahead of myself.

Today – Monday – and tomorrow Fredericksburg will have the kind of temperatures that we all associate with late spring. While today’s high temperature will be in the upper 60s, Tuesday’s thermometer readings will very likely register in the low 70s, a good 20 degrees above normal. West and southwest winds will pump warm moist air from the Gulf states ahead of the next cold front due through our region late Wednesday.

Ahead of this next front, Fredericksburg actually has a small chance of strong to severe thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon as shown in this Storm Prediction Center graphic:day3prob_0730

A narrow zone of unstable air and strong wind shear (change of wind with height) will develop across the region by late afternoon just ahead of the front itself. Tornadoes are not likely on Wednesday. However, tomorrow’s Virginia statewide Tornado Drill provides a good opportunity to prepare for the spring and summer severe weather season. Consider signing up your home or business as participants.

Behind the cold front Wednesday night and Thursday will be much cooler and very windy. But before we get to that point let’s enjoy the temperatures today and tomorrow!

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Permalink: http://news.fredericksburg.com/weather/2014/03/10/quiet-weather-to-start-the-week/