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Here we go again Fredericksburg

Any thoughts you may be harboring about the approach of spring will need to be postponed for a while given the Winter Storm Watches that have already been posted beginning at midnight Sunday. You might wonder how that could be even though today we’ll see temperatures nearing 50 degrees while Sunday’s highs will be in the low 60s. The short answer is another Arctic cold front. Take a look at this surface temperature map for 7 a.m. Tuesday:namUS_sfc_temp_Tues12Z

This air mass would be impressively cold by mid-January standards yet here we are in the first week of March. Very cold air will settle in behind the approaching front just in time to synch up with the moisture provided by the monster storm system that hit the West Coast last night.

The precipitation will start Sunday night as rain. As the cold air works its way into the area the ‘Burg will see just about every type of winter wetness: rain, freezing rain, sleet, and snow. I’ve posted this explanatory graphic before but it’s worth showing again to illustrate the vertical temperature profile’s effect on precipitation type:winterimage

For total accumulations the Winter Storm Watch wording indicates 5 or more inches of frozen stuff, which will be a heavy mixture of ice and snow. There will likely be adjustments to this number as the event nears since the models have been trending colder with each successive run. Please stay tuned to the forecast and don’t assume it will remain the same as it is now. This has the real potential for being a high impact event for Fredericksburg and vicinity.

In the meantime enjoy the mild weekend weather while you can!!

 

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