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Welcome back winter…or not

Depending upon one’s viewpoint this week’s return to colder weather may or may not be welcome after the warm interlude we enjoyed last week. Normal afternoon highs at this point on the calendar should be 50 degrees, but after a flirtation with that mark today Fredericksburg will remain 10 to 12 degrees below average this week. Add to that another train of upper-level short wave troughs to provide a snow interest and voila! Winter is back.

After today’s sunny conditions more clouds and a reinforcing shot of cold air will roll into Fredericksburg overnight. Tuesday will be cooler with highs only in the low 40s ahead of the next chance for precipitation late Tuesday night into Wednesday. Another Alberta Clipper will approach from the northwest while a southern disturbance scoots along the Gulf Coast states. Earlier model runs had hinted at these two joining forces, or “phasing”, to create a larger storm but that doesn’t appear to be the case now.

The result will be light snow beginning after midnight Tuesday and continuing into Wednesday morning. The chances for accumulating white stuff are fairly low as shown in this excerpt from a Weather Prediction Center graphic:snow probsThe medium green shading that just touches Fredericksburg represents a 30% chance of more than one inch of snow by Wednesday afternoon. That’s not much hope for those who crave plowable amounts.

There are more chances for precipitation later this week and next, so with cold air in place we’ll have to watch those events as they get closer. Meanwhile enjoy today’s sunshine, and if I had to give advice to schoolkids regarding Wednesday it would be:  DO YOUR HOMEWORK!!

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Permalink: http://news.fredericksburg.com/weather/2014/02/24/welcome-back-winter-or-not/