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Rain, warmth, and thunderstorms

Now that’s a blogpost title more apropos to April or May, not February…especially this winter! Nevertheless that’s what Nature has in store for us today through Friday. This morning’s rain and occasional rumbles of thunder are courtesy of a convective line out ahead of a cold front that won’t push east of Fredericksburg until late afternoon. The rain and warm temperatures are helping to scour away the snow cover and adding sunshine to that by lunchtime will only increase the melting rate.

Given the later arrival of the front, temperatures will climb into the low 60s this afternoon. And since the air behind the front is of Pacific (vs. Canadian) origin temperatures will drop only into the mid-30s by tomorrow morning and then rise into the mid-50s under mostly cloudy skies. Friday then brings an interesting prospect for late February in the ‘Burg. Check out this Storm Prediction Center (SPC) graphic:day3otlk_0830

Yes, you are seeing that correctly. The SPC is forecasting a slight risk of severe weather for Friday with the main threat being damaging winds from strong thunderstorm outflows. Fredericksburg is barely within the slight risk zone but it looks like the threat for storms will be over by mid-morning. The cold front responsible for firing things up will have pushed east of the city by that time. That will minimize the risks for the ‘Burg since things will be over well before peak heating during the afternoon.

After that the weekend looks pretty nice at this point with sunshine and temperatures rising into the low 60s Saturday and upper 50s Sunday. Unfortunately (depending upon your point of view) that will be it for our taste of spring as cold air reasserts itself over the eastern half of the nation next week. But hey, let’s enjoy what we have now!