Sometimes you have to ignore the rumors
Late last week there were heavy rumblings in social media weather geek circles regarding a massive snow storm that would dump a foot or more of white stuff over the mid-Atlantic this coming weekend. It’s true that at least one forecast model showed indications of that happening, but it was also true that the various models were (a) in serious disagreement with one another and (b) jumping around their solutions with each successive run. (That’s why I never jumped on the “blizzard bandwagon,” especially that far ahead of time.) The upshot is that the “big ‘un” won’t happen this weekend.
But after today’s sunshine and highs in the mid-40s there will be several bouts with light snow this weekend. Check out this upper-air (~18,000 ft overhead) forecast graphic for 7 a.m. tomorrow:The three short-wave troughs that will affect Fredericksburg’s weather this weekend are highlighted by the three white ovals. For the big storm to have happened systems #1 (approaching from the southwest) and #2 (approaching from the northwest) would have had to join forces right over our heads but that’s not going to happen.
Instead this succession of small disturbances will create chances for light snow around Fredericksburg starting in the wee hours Saturday morning and lasting through mid-afternoon. After a few hours break, light amounts of the white stuff will begin again Saturday night, gradually tapering off Sunday afternoon and mixing with light rain. And then system #3 will usher in another few hours of light stuff Sunday night through the predawn hours Monday. Total accumulations are forecast to be in the range of perhaps an inch and as temperatures Sunday afternoon rise into the low 40s much of that will likely melt.
Thus after a pleasant – for February! – sunny Friday our weekend will be cloudy, a bit damp, and potentially slippery now and then. Thus when you head out to enjoy the activities around the city dress and drive accordingly. Oh, and keep an eye on the weather forecasts. These winter systems scoot along the jet stream so quickly that forecasts can change, especially with regard to timing.
And as for those big snowstorm rumors: That’s all they were for this weekend. But it’s still February and there will be more chances for a dumping of that white stuff. (I’m keeping an eye on the middle of next week right now…)