Warmer temperatures for the weekend around Fredericksburg
You can set aside the parkas and gloves for a few days…but you may need an umbrella starting Sunday. After yesterday’s temperatures never made up it to 32 degrees at the UMW weather station a turnaround today – Friday – will move the thermometer above freezing by late morning. The high today will reach the upper 40s while the weekend will feature a “heat wave” with high temperatures reaching into the 50s. Thanks to a shift in the overall jet stream pattern the really frigid air is being held farther north for the time being.
That doesn’t mean spring weather is around the corner, though, as this pattern shift opens the door to more Gulf of Mexico moisture available to fuel large wet low pressure systems. In fact, here is the Climate Prediction Center forecast graphic for precipitation probabilities for Feb 7-13:Note that Virginia is smack dab in the middle of a much higher than normal chance at precipitation for the second week of February. (The graphic for the first week of the month looks similar.)
After partly sunny skies and dry conditions today and Saturday the ‘Burg won’t likely see another sunny day again until late next week. The first indication of this coming wetness will arrive Sunday with cloudy skies and a slight chance of rain. This will usher in a very unsettled week as moisture and temperatures combine for some interesting forecasts. Monday may bring another chance at some white stuff as temperatures bottom out around freezing that morning before slowly rising into the upper 30s later in the day. It looks like a mixture of rain and snow will be around most of the daylight hours.
Large surface low pressure systems are then likely to affect Fredericksburg and vicinity during mid-week and again next weekend. However it’s way too early to trust any model forecasts about precipitation type for those storms. We’ll keep an eye on things as the time draws closer but let’s enjoy the warmer weather this weekend first.