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Strap in as the weather roller coaster continues in Fredericksburg

MORE: Read more news from Fredericksburg

This week’s temperature whipsaw featuring first warm, then cold, then warm conditions again likely has a lot of folks pondering what apparel will be weather-appropriate this weekend.  Let me add “damp” to the mix just to stir things up a bit.

Today will feature mostly sunny conditions this morning with a high in the lower 60s. As the day wears on the layer of high thin cirrus clouds will lower and thicken ahead of our next weather maker shown in this forecast graphic (courtesy of the College of DuPage weather site):

This 500 millibar (~18,000 ft) upper air forecast map is from the North American Model and is for 1 a.m. Saturday. The feature circled in white is a short wave trough headed in our direction, which will kick off some light showers this evening.  The NWS Sterling official forecast calls for rain tonight after midnight but a couple of short range models are indicating that showers could reach the Fredericksburg vicinity by 9 p.m.  Thus if you are headed out for Friday night football games you may want to haul along an umbrella or poncho.

This short wave will move quickly off the coast and allow a few peeks of sunshine tomorrow after lunch with high temperatures again topping out in the low 60s.  Then the next weather maker approaches, a low pressure system that will strengthen over the weekend as it slides northeastward through the Great Lakes.  Ahead of it the states just west of the Appalachians are under the gun for potential severe weather Sunday.

However Fredericksburg will miss out on that “fun” as a sharp cold front associated with the low pressure blasts through here early Monday morning, a timing that will suppress atmospheric instability and thus keep thunderstorms out of the forecast. Behind that cold front the daily high temperatures will again take a tumble from the 60s to near the 50-degree mark during the middle of next week.

This next airmass doesn’t appear to be quite as cold as the one we just got rid of but the dry conditions will prevail as we are expected to receive only a quarter-inch of total rainfall over the next 3 days. Remember the Virginia map in Wednesday’s blogpost that showed 17 percent of the Old Dominion to be “abnormally dry”?  That graphic was updated this week and now shows 52 percent of our state to be in that same drought classification. Let’s hope this dry weather pattern can give way to some more regular precipitation soon.