Gradual improvement this week
The sun WILL come back out in Fredericksburg eventually but it may be sporadic until later this week.
The remnants of Karen are gradually drifting southeastward away from our area while the supporting upper low gradually winds down and also moves away. The reason the sun won’t make a quick reappearance today is that another weather feature is keeping some low level moisture around. That would be our old “friend” known as cold air damming.
The “wedge” is indicated by the white arrow I’ve added, which is the surface air being forced southward along the eastern edge of the mountains. It provides the perfect setup for low clouds and drizzle although paradoxically the air being squeezed up against the Blue Ridge is dryer than the soggy mess that has hung around the past few days. The high temperature will rise to the upper 60s under the overcast.
Tuesday should feature some actual sunshine while temperatures climb back into the 70s. Then the approach of another cold front will usher in clouds and rain later in the week, but this time the upper air pattern will keep things scooting along without stalling out. The air behind this front will be noticeably autumn-like as the weekend approaches. As for after that? It could begin to really feel like late autumn by the middle of next week.