Karen no threat to Fredericksburg but showers and storms for Monday
Today – Sunday – will be our last day to bask in August-like weather before autumn shoulders its way back into the Fredericksburg area. Meanwhile Tropical Storm Karen is no longer, having succumbed to a dry air incursion that caused it to dwindle to a tropical depression while still over the Gulf of Mexico south of New Orleans. A strong cold front sweeping eastward across the nation will swallow its tropical remnants and keep most of that moisture over northern Florida as shown in this Weather Prediction Center forecast graphic for 8 p.m. Monday evening:
Meanwhile that same cold front is associated with the very strong system that pounded the northern Plains states with feet of early autumn snow over the past couple of days. We won’t see any white stuff from this storm but we will have showers and some thunderstorms on Monday. Heavy rainfall could total up to nearly two inches in some areas. Given the dry ground from several weeks of no rain the likelihood of widespread flooding is low but there could be some localized flash flooding tomorrow in areas that are prone to such things so be aware of that. Also pay attention to any media alerts of severe weather late tomorrow afternoon as the Storm Prediction Center has our area outlooked for a small potential for severe storms as the front roars through.
As for timing the rain itself looks to hold off in the ‘Burg until mid-afternoon Monday although I wouldn’t be surprised if a stray shower or storm pops up in one or two spots just after lunch. The high temperature will climb back into the low 80s one more time tomorrow before cooler air spills into the area late Monday night behind the cold front. Tuesday should dawn sunny and turn out to be a delightful autumn day with a high back in the low 70s, much closer to where it should be in October.
Enjoy your Sunday!