First, another beautiful weekend in Fredericksburg … then the rain comes.
Make no mistake, Fredericksburg will see impacts from the remnant of TS Karen. But let’s not forget about the beautiful summer-like weekend we will have first. Friday, Saturday, and Sunday will all be partly to mostly sunny with afternoon highs in the mid- to upper 80s and morning lows in the low 60s, much more reminiscent of August than October weather. It will be a great weekend for outdoor activities like attending the State Fair, shopping at the Farmer’s Market, enjoying First Friday, going to the dog fair, or sampling the fun at the Harvest Festival at Hurkamp Park.
Our beautiful weather is courtesy of an abnormally strong high pressure system over the Mid-Atlantic states that is an atmospheric balancing response to the very strong low pressure system now located over the northern Great Plains. That system is creating thunderstorms and tornadoes on its eastern edge and heavy snow to its west, the first strong storm of this autumn. The downstream effect of that system is the high pressure system that is providing us with summer-like conditions.
Sunday evening the western storm will approach trailing a cold front that will absorb the tropical moisture, which Karen will push into the Atlantic seaboard states. Here is this morning’s National Hurricane Center track for this system:
Note that by the wee hours of Tuesday the tropical storm will dissipate to a “post-tropical” low, which means the winds will be less than 39 mph. So given this track Fredericksburg will escape the stronger winds that more southern states will experience. The one fly in the ointment could be a slight severe storm risk on Monday that comes with every tropical system, but it’s too early to delineate that possible threat. We’ll watch that one as the weekend progresses.
Meanwhile we will still see some heavy rain beginning Monday as this Weather Prediction Center graphic shows:
The light purple shading that touches the ‘Burg indicates at least 1.5 inches of rainfall Monday thru Wednesday based on the current track of Karen‘s remnants. If that track shifts to the west 50 miles or so the heavier stripe of rain would move with it, bringing even more rain for Fredericksburg. Thus it would be wise to prepare for heavy rain as shown in yet another graphic, this one from the Climate Prediction Center, which indicates that potential for much of the southeastern U.S.:
To summarize: this weekend’s weather will be great, so enjoy it! But starting Sunday evening the two systems (from the west and south) will open the atmospheric reservoir and bring us rain that will continue through at least Wednesday. Monday we could also have a severe storm risk but the potential for that is heavily dependent on the track of the Karen‘s remnants. I’ll keep an eye on that through the weekend.