A schizophrenic week lies ahead
How could we ask for a better morning than this? The current temperature at the UMW weather station is 68 with the dewpoint perched at 56 very comfortable degrees under bright sunshine. It actually looks and feels more like an early September morning rather than August 5, all courtesy of the continuing weather pattern that is bringing northwesterly air flow at the upper levels. That northwest upper air flow will continue this week but things at our level – the surface – will begin to change tonight.
The surface high pressure that is parked overhead right now will slide off the coast as today progresses. The clockwise circulation around it will allow the current northerly wind direction to swap around to the south this evening. Accompanying this wind direction change will be the development of a warm front, which will slowly approach Fredericksburg and stall in the general area for a day or two followed by a weak cold front that will also stall and stick around. These boundaries will open the door to clouds and a significant chance of rainfall each day the rest of this week (hence the split personality suggested in the blogpost title). The forecast rainfall totals through Thursday morning are shown in this Weather Prediction Center graphic:
High temperatures under this week’s cloud cover will remain in the low to mid-80s despite the southerly winds but the dewpoints – and thus stickiness levels – will rise as humid air from the Gulf of Mexico source region is drawn into our area. Much of the week will remain mostly cloudy but if the sun should poke through the extra energy could fire up some stronger thunderstorms later in the week. The sogginess will likely continue until a stronger cold front pushes the clouds and rain off the coast sometime Saturday.
So this week’s weather motto might be “Carpe Diem”…seize the day today (Monday) because this will likely be the best weather we’ll have until this weekend.