A tropical storm, another pleasant summer day, and more storms for the weekend
First a note about Tropical Storm Dorian. At this point it is still a long way off, with the National Hurricane Center forecast track showing it approaching the Bahamas in five days or so:
As you can see the NHC doesn’t expect it to intensify into a hurricane by mid-week. We’ll just have to keep an eye on Dorian to see where its track may lead toward the first weekend in August. Folks with beach plans next week take note!
I hope many of you were able to throw open the windows the past couple of nights to enjoy the refreshing cool and dry airmass that brought us some spectacular July weather. With temperatures bottoming out in the upper 50s this is a very welcome change to the soupy air we had a week ago. Today – Friday – will be one more pleasant day with high temperatures reaching the mid-80s while the dewpoints remain in the comfortable 50s.
The weekend, however, will bring two features that will trend the weather downward a bit. The first is the surface high pressure center currently overhead. This will slide eastward off the coast and the clockwise surface circulation around it will shift our winds around to a southerly direction. This will provide a conveyor belt for higher dewpoints (and thus higher humidity) off the Gulf of Mexico. The second feature is yet another cold front that will approach Fredericksburg bringing chances of showers and thunderstorms both Saturday and Sunday, with the latter looking to be the wetter day. Temperatures over the weekend will be held down a bit by more widespread cloud cover, reaching into the low to mid-80s.
The good news is that this cold front once again looks like it will pass completely through the area by Monday and bring more cool and dry air behind it on northwesterly winds. This unusual July weather pattern should be appreciated since it is keeping the typical three H’s (heat, haze and humidity) mostly at bay. At this point no long term heat waves are on the horizon for Fredericksburg and vicinity…but August is coming so don’t let down your guard!