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Monday overcast may take a while to clear off

A cold front due through the ‘Burg today will swap wind directions around from the south to the west and the current overcast conditions will clear out this afternoon while temperatures climb into the low 50s.  Tuesday holds the promise of more sun with that same westerly breeze and a high in the mid-50s for a pleasant February day before the next precipitation-producing system arrives on Wednesday.  A short wave trough will then interact with the remnants of today’s cold front (which will stall across the southeastern U.S. states).

The forecast models are still in disarray regarding the exact track of the resulting surface low pressure system but they all agree it will be relatively compact in size.  The European model shows it tracking far enough south of the ‘Burg to provide cold air for snow, but the amount of precipitation is limited due to that southern track.  Both the NAM and the GFS models show the storm’s track farther north – and thus warmer – meaning the light amount of precipitation that does fall would be mostly rain.  Either way the chances of a lot of snow for Fredericksburg Wednesday into Thursday morning are low as shown in this graphic:

The green shading over Fredericksburg indicates a 30% probability of an inch or more of snow, so snow lovers will once again be teased but probably not satisfied.

After this system clears the coast Thursday and Friday will bring typical mid-February temperatures with highs near 50 degrees and lows near 30.   Then, as mentioned in yesterday’s post, another Arctic blast enters the picture with much below normal temperatures invading the area behind a strong cold front on Saturday.  The good news is that this chill will only last 2-3 days before temperatures moderate a bit but it looks like the latter half of February holds a couple more of these deep-diving cold air intrusions.  The seesaw temperature swings will likely continue for at least a couple more weeks and thus the potential for interesting weather continues.  Winter is not done with Fredericksburg yet!

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