By Chris White

Weather Blog: Since Fredericksburg resides "in the seam" between the Richmond VA and Washington DC media markets this blog is a look at the weather from a Fredericksburg-centric point of view.

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Sunday’s peek into next week’s weather

After a chilly start (low temperatures in the teens (F)) to a sunny Sunday morning the clouds will roll back in later this afternoon ahead of another storm system swooping across the Great Lakes, which will drag a cold front across the Fredericksburg area Monday afternoon.  This event looks to be all rain with perhaps a quarter-inch or so of total moisture to work with.  This cold front won’t be of Arctic origins (that is reserved for next weekend) so the air mass behind it will be breezy but seasonably cool with highs in the low 50s under sunshine on Tuesday.

Then the next system to watch approaches on Wednesday.

The forecast models have all shown this next cold front will stall across the southeastern U.S. and another surface low pressure will develop along it.  The location, strength, and track of this storm system have been bouncing around quite a bit over the past few days and the latest model runs of the various models (NAM, GFS, European) still disagree somewhat.  Thus the National Weather Service forecasters at the Sterling office have taken a middle ground at this point and are calling for Wednesday to be rainy with a changeover to snow sometime that night into Thursday morning.  I tend to agree with that scenario as there seems to be enough cold air behind the system to create the changeover.  How much snow might fall is still TBD so stay tuned to the weather media over the next 24-36 hours regarding that system.

Then we get a brief respite on Friday before the next big event which looks like another deep dive of an East Coast trough that will push Arctic air all the way down into northern Florida.  Take a gander at this 850 mb (~5000 feet up) GFS model temperature forecast map for next Sunday morning:

That could lead to sub-freezing high temperatures for the ‘Burg next weekend.  And, of course, with that type of cold air around the potential for frozen precipitation remains.  Looks like the latter half of February could very well be much cooler than the first half was!