Interim update on the potential New England blizzard
There’s a buzz in the news media regarding a potential blizzard in New England over the next couple of days and I thought I’d at least mention what’s going on with regards to Fredericksburg’s weather. The models are showing a wide range of snowfall totals for the New England states, with a couple of results showing feet of snow dumping on our northern neighbors. This is due to two separate disturbances that will “phase” (join forces) too far north to create those conditions for the ‘Burg. Here’s a forecast graphic from the GFS model that illustrates:
I’ve circled in red the two systems that are depicted in this forecast for 7 a.m. Friday morning. The northern system – a short wave trough – will keep most of its moisture well north of the ‘Burg but will drag colder air down behind it. The southern system will be just slow enough to delay the “phasing” with the colder air and thus create just plain rain for the ‘Burg tonight and tomorrow, altho’ I still wouldn’t dismiss the possibility of some sleet late tonight.
After these two systems join forces east of Long Island the resulting storm looks like it will explode in intensity. Not only would that result in the aforementioned blizzard over New England but it will also create a strong wind field that will result in a very breezy Saturday for the ‘Burg. More on the weekend weather tomorrow, but suffice it to say that Fredericksburg will miss a significant snow storm this time.