A pattern change for the first half of February
As is the case many times the upcoming pattern shift will happen gradually. We will still have several more Alberta Clippers swooping through the region but the overall “punch” of the Arctic cold will weaken as this week progresses. One case in point is the next Clipper, due through here tonight (Monday). It won’t bust through the area and usher in another frigid air mass like the past few have. In fact it will leave behind a stalled front that will hang around the Mid-Atlantic for a while as shown here:
That’s why the official NWS Sterling forecast calls for rain and snow showers tonight through Tuesday night. As the front takes its sweet time the Fredericksburg area will remain mostly in the warm sector of this system, actually seeing air temperatures at or above freezing while the moisture hangs around.
Even after this front clears through the air mass behind it won’t be frigid so the rest of this week will be at or above normal temperature-wise, with highs in the upper 40′s (F) mid-week. Those high temperatures will even rise into the 50′s over the weekend as another surface low pressure system and cold front swing through. In fact a longer range look shows the next truly cold air mass won’t push southward into the ‘Burg until around Valentine’s Day (2/14). After that happens it looks like we could shift back into a colder regime for the last half of February, but that’s still too far off to be unduly concerned about.
Have a good week!