It may seem cold but temperatures are near normal
This morning’s (Friday’s) low at the UMW weather station was recorded as 18 degrees (F), which is pretty chilly for these parts especially this winter. But even though this reading was a bit below average temperatures are finally about where they should be for early January with today’s forecast high in the mid-40s right on track with the norms. Bright sunshine and a light breeze will provide a good lead-in to First Friday in the ‘Burg although temperatures will plummet again once the sun goes down (officially at 4:55 p.m.).
Saturday will also bring similar temperatures although clouds will be on the increase ahead of an upper level shortwave trough shown in this graphic for 4 a.m. Sunday:
This could conceivably squeeze out a few flakes Saturday night but more likely will just bring some clouds for Fredericksburg and vicinity. Sunday will be sunnier with highs in the upper 40s, and then a warmup begins following a dry cold frontal passage Sunday night.
Depending on which model solution you believe the high temperatures late next week could be slightly above normal (per the GFS model) or well above normal (according to the European model). The GFS moves a strong storm system up the Ohio valley into the Great Lakes region by mid-week while the European model holds off on this storm system for another 48 hours or so. That delay – if it materializes – would allow a longer period of southerly winds ahead of the storm system to pump much warmer air up the East Coast. Either way we’ll have to pay the piper afterwards as it appear that a chunk of the frigid air that is banked over northern Canada will slide through the ‘Burg sometime next weekend.
Meanwhile enjoy the sunshine and benign conditions today and tomorrow, perhaps checking out First Friday tonight. Hey, it’s the first weekend of 2013!!