Foggy start to a warm wet Monday
The cold air damming wedge left over from yesterday will be stubborn to move out of the area today. This morning’s fog will gradually ease but the low overcast will continue to stick around much of the day, with the approaching cold front finally bulldozing the entire mess out of the area this evening. The National Weather Service office in Sterling is cautiously optimistic that some sun could peek through in southern Maryland today, but the conventional wisdom with these nasty wedges is that they always hang around longer than the models think they will. Thus I think today’s forecast high of 70 degrees (F) may be too optimistic, but it’s safe to say local thermometers will reach into the mid-60′s today.
The ‘Burg won’t see much rainfall from this setup as the best dynamics from the approaching system moves northeastward on the other side of the Appalachians. This HPC graphic illustrates that very well:
It shows Fredericksburg receiving somewhere between 0.1 and 0.25 inches of rain by the time this system pushes through the area, which is literally a drop in the bucket regarding the amount of rain we need to begin climbing out of the rapidly growing drought we’re in.
Once things clear off we’ll be back to more Decemberish temperatures as highs will range from the upper 40′s Tuesday to the mid 50′s by Friday. The next chance of precipitation looks to be Sunday, so the dry conditions will continue to hang around.