By Chris White

Weather Blog: Since Fredericksburg resides "in the seam" between the Richmond VA and Washington DC media markets this blog is a look at the weather from a Fredericksburg-centric point of view.

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Warmer than normal for the first part of the week

You could probably tell it was warmer than normal when you poked your head out the door this morning.  The low temperature of 47 degrees (F) at the UMW weather station was 19 degrees warmer than yesterday’s low temperature (28), and the projected high for today of 71 degrees will reinforce that notion.  At the moment we should be seeing highs near or just above the 50-degree mark and lows around the freezing point but such is not to be for the next couple of days as southerly winds ahead of the next cold front pump warm air northward into the ‘Burg.  In fact, this morning’s NWS Sterling forecast discussion mentions the word “humid” in reference to today’s weather…not something you’d expect in early December!

The next cold frontal passage early Wednesday morning will be mainly a dry one and will cool us back down to more normal conditions, but we’ll warm back up to the mid-50s by the weekend.  So when will it get cold around here?  Check out this 850 mb (~5000 feet up) temperature map for this morning from the GFS forecast model:

Note the greens, yellows, and even browns signifying warmer air over much of the eastern half of the U.S.  Now, check out the forecast map for 850 mb temperatures on Wednesday evening Dec. 11 (admittedly a long way out):

Note how the darker blue shades – cooler temperatures – have overrun most of the nation.  Is this the pattern change that will herald our plunge to much colder weather? Maybe, but then again maybe not.  The Climate Prediction Center isn’t totally buying off on that just yet, but I still think we’re in for much colder conditions by the latter part of this month.

Meanwhile have a good week!