First week in November
After this past weekend’s switch back to Eastern Standard Time I hope everyone is on time today and adjusted to the earlier sunrise and – seemingly – way too early sunset. At least the benign weather today (Monday) of this first full week of November should help with the time change with sunshine, blue skies, and a high temperature just bumping the 50 degree (F) mark. Tuesday will look much like today but then things go downhill a bit from there.
The next system heading toward the Mid-Atlantic will be another coastal storm that will turn into a strong nor’easter just about the time it moves past the ‘Burg’s latitude on its way northward. Fredericksburg itself looks to receive between a half and three-quarters of an inch of rain from this system starting late Tuesday night into early Thursday morning. This storm could be much stronger if another approaching shortwave trough manages to “phase” (merge) with it, but all indications are that the timing won’t work out on as shown here:
The area within the white circle is the approaching shortwave trough while the white arrow points to the coastal low pressure system. The timing is just enough off that they won’t get together at the right time to cause this system to “bomb out” off the Virginia coast.
So the ‘Burg will miss out on most of the action from this system while areas to the north that don’t need any more weather excitement will get more rain and wind – and potentially a small storm surge – from this new storm. After that? A warmup is on the way…but more on that later.