Storm next week?
The current string of partly to mostly sunny days with high temperatures at or above 50 degrees (F) will continue for the ‘Burg through at least Tuesday as several upper air disturbances pass just far enough away to keep precipitation out of the forecast. Then the specter of another coastal storm – i.e. a nor’easter – looms midweek as shown here:
The exact track of this low pressure system is still in question as the European model (the one that predicted Sandy‘s track very well) keeps this low center hugging the coast while other models push it a bit further out to sea. Thus the above depiction – valid for Wednesday morning – is a compromise of tracks.
Whether the ‘Burg receives significant rainfall from this is still being debated by National Weather Service forecast offices, but the following graphic is the HPC estimate of rainfall given the above track:
If this holds true the Fredericksburg area looks like it will receive close to an inch of rain Tuesday night through Wednesday as this system races northward. Most of Virginia could actually use some rain as many areas are still under a moisture deficit, but the coastal areas further north really don’t need another storm right now.
Meanwhile enjoy the sun and the weekend!