By Chris White

Weather Blog: Since Fredericksburg resides "in the seam" between the Richmond VA and Washington DC media markets this blog is a look at the weather from a Fredericksburg-centric point of view.

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Coming up…one more beautiful week

You have to admit:  the weather this October has been spectacular.  With only a few exceptions we’ve seen bright blue skies, comfortable humidity, and temperatures that make a lot of us long for autumn all year long.  The leaf colors also enhance the admiration process as the blue skies contrast with the yellows and reds.

The good news is that we will actually have another full week of this weather.  A surface high pressure is taking up residence along the Mid-Atlantic states and will fend off all comers this week while maintaining our high temperatures in the 70′s (F) to perhaps even 80 degrees by Wednesday.  The lows will also be comfortable as they bottom out in the upper 40′s to the mid-50′s (altho’ this morning’s lows were a bit chillier in the upper 30′s around the ‘Burg).  It’s almost as if Nature is pausing to catch its breath during the sometimes frenetic transition from summer to winter.

But…nothing stays the same forever, and that is also true of our weather.  The forecast models are showing a deep long wave trough diving down from Canada early next week and ushering in much chillier air amid a significant pattern change for us.  At the very least that will mean the Halloween crowds will need to bundle up underneath their costumes.

But, the models are also hinting at something more significant.  Take a look at the current graphic from the National Hurricane Center:

See the red circle in the Caribbean?  Both the European and the GFS long range forecast model solutions indicate this will develop into a fairly major tropical system over the next few days.  The big question is:  what direction will it head?  The buzz in meteorological circles is that at least one of those long range models moves this tropical system northward into the western Atlantic, close enough to the East Coast to affect our weather by Monday of next week.

That could have all sorts of implications for the ‘Burg but at the moment I’m exhibiting a “Missouri mindset”, i.e. “Show Me”.  I’ll wait a few more days before I jump on any particular weather bandwagon as the long range model forecasts have a tendency to jump around a lot with these type of major pattern changes before settling down.  Meanwhile enjoy this week and soak up as much warm air as you’d like.  It may be quite a while before it’s this balmy again.

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