Okay, when will the sun reappear?
UPDATE 2:45 pm: Ooops! Looks like the wedge conditions shifted a bit further eastward than I anticipated this morning, allowing the sun to peek out this afternoon around the ‘Burg. The low clouds are still hanging tough east of I-95, tho’.
And the answer is….not today, but probably Wednesday. The problem today is the dreaded East Coast “cold air damming” (CAD) phenomenon, which occurs when surface high pressure over New England forces cool moist air down the coastal plain and dams it against the mountains.
(The white arrow indicates this shallow wedge of air with its low clouds and drizzle.) This setup is difficult to dislodge and tends to hang around much longer than us sun-loving humans would like it to. In fact it will take a weak cold frontal passage tomorrow to move the high pressure system further offshore and scour out the low level wedge. But once that occurs the rest of the week – starting with Wednesday – looks to be sunny and bright with high temperatures in the 60′s (F) and low 70′s through this coming Saturday.
How about later on this month? The Climate Prediction Center graphic shown below indicates a decent chance at above normal temperatures through the middle of the month for most of the U.S.:
In fact, the 8-14 day outlook graphic shows much the same warm pattern, and the web page from which I obtained the above graphic also shows an above average chance at precipitation for the Fredericksburg area through mid-month. Thus it looks like much of October will be warmer and wetter than normal but that still remains to be seen.
So to re-iterate: the sun will come out…tomorrow.