Possibly unwelcome Sunday morning update
Yes, we need rain and we’re getting it, with up to a quarter-inch forecast for the ‘Burg and vicinity by the time precipitation ends this evening from the current setup (ominous wording here).
This is the surface situation for 8:00 a.m. this morning (Sunday); you can see that the cold front – blue line – that swept through yesterday bringing northwesterly winds and cooler temperatures didn’t move very far off shore before a couple of “wrinkles” formed along it as surface low pressure centers (the red “L”s). The counterclockwise airflow around these lows is tossing moisture-laden Atlantic air over top the cool air west of the front and providing us with the rain (indicated by the green lines).
This activity will move off the coast late this evening and the skies will actually clear and provide a starry and chilly night with low temperatures Monday morning around 40 degrees (F) in the city and probably the mid-3o’s westward toward the Blue Ridge. Then the forecast models start doing their disagreement dance as an upper level disturbance (a shortwave trough) approaches early tomorrow, with the disagreement being whether or not Fredericksburg and vicinity will actually see more rain from this feature.
Regardless of whether there is precipitation – which would be less than 0.1 inches if it does occur – the clouds will roll back in, shutting out the sunshine most of Monday and early Tuesday and suppressing high temperatures on Columbus Day to the lower 50′s. The sun will likely break through later on Tuesday but the high temperature will remain around 60 degrees that day. The good news? The rest of this week looks warmer and sunnier…for now.