Clouds, showers, and forecast model disagreements ahead
As I mentioned in yesterday’s post the blip on Fredericksburg’s currently beautiful weather horizon is a cold front that will approach the region later in the week. This same front is creating confusion between two of the major forecast models. The GFS model shows the front approaching the ‘Burg Wednesday night and stalling over Virginia while the NAM is predicting the feature will clear the area and push into North Carolina. The former situation would allow a series of disturbances – weak surface low pressure “wrinkles” in the front – to usher in several days of wet weather while the latter would open the door for a cold air damming wedge to set up over northern Virginia with its accompanying easterly winds, low clouds, and light rain.
Either way the result will be clouds and showers arriving tomorrow (Wednesday) evening, with a slight chance of thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon thrown in for good measure. This interruption in our wonderful fall weather will likely settle in for several days, lasting through the weekend before another system from the west scours out the clouds and brings more cool and dry air to us. The total rainfall amounts will be in the half-inch range through Saturday evening as shown by the dark blue shade in this forecast graphic:
The high temperature under today’s sunny skies will be in the upper 70′s (F) while tomorrow should reach into the low 80′s ahead of the front. Thursday through Sunday the temperatures will depend on how far south the front actually makes it but it’s a good bet that the highs will be in the low 70′s.