So what weather will this weekend bring?
Today (Friday) Fredericksburg will have yet another beautiful September day with high temperatures climbing into the low 80′s (F) under sunny skies. Sunday also looks to be mostly sunny and delightfully cooler – highs in the low 70′s - behind yet another cold front that is due to zoom through the region. That leaves Saturday’s outlook as a bit more challenging but not bad overall.
The aforementioned cold front is part of another system currently swinging across the nation’s heartland and ushering in a cool Canadian airmass behind it. Ahead of the front this “atmospheric pump engine” will bring up warmer and moister air into the Mid-Atlantic on Saturday which will push the ‘Burg’s high temperature into the upper 80′s. Then as the front approaches late in the day the Storm Prediction Center has once again issued a Slight Risk for severe storms that overlays the area around Fredericksburg.
HOWEVER…compared to this past Tuesday’s setup this weekend’s instability appears to be fairly weak (the same reason why Tuesday’s storms were tamer than originally forecast) and the wind shear looks to be much less conducive for widespread rough weather.
Thus my thought for Saturday’s weather is that the ‘Burg will have mostly sunny and very warm conditions until late afternoon. Then as the front approaches between 4:00 and 8:00 pm a scattered line of showers and thunderstorms will cross the I-95 corridor with a possibility of a few of those storms bringing some lightning, severe wind gusts (>58 mph), and perhaps some pea-sized hail. It would be prudent to pay attention to the sky and especially any weather watches or warnings that may be issued as conditions – and short term forecasts – can change quickly.
Otherwise, enjoy the weekend!