Saturday severe weather potential
Just a quick note to outline this afternoon’s possible severe weather. As I mentioned yesterday a strong cold front will punch through our area today, plowing into the summertime airmass that blankets the region. The contrast between the cooler and dryer air behind the front with the hot and sticky air ahead of the boundary will create storminess. Given the strength of this front the Storm Prediction Center has some concerns about the severity of these storms and has issued a Slight Risk for severe weather for the Fredericksburg/DC region, with a Moderate Risk forecast for the coastal areas of northern Maryland and points further north.
This graphic shows the main threat for the ‘Burg to be a 30% chance of severe wind threat (wind gusts over 50 knots), with the hatched area that covers the Fredericksburg area meaning a potential for gusts over 65 knots, which is essentially hurricane strength:
There is also a small chance of tornadoes (2%) and severe hail (5%) for most of Virginia east of the mountains. (All probabilities are for a severe event occurring within 25 miles of any given point.)
Today won’t be a total washout, though. The cold front itself will push through this evening while a pre-frontal line of storms looks to reach the Fredericksburg area around 4:00 pm or so. Keep an eye to the sky and an ear to the media today. This threat is worth paying attention to!!