A bright sunshiny morning

The qualifier in the blog post title is that some leftover clouds are heading in our direction.  Even so we should be mostly sunny today (Thursday) and tomorrow after a rainfall total of  0.16 inches recorded by my unofficial backyard gauge.  Today’s high temperature should reach the 70 degree (F) mark while Friday we’ll see the mid-70′s.

Meanwhile the upcoming weekend weather system has taken an abrupt turn toward less rain per last night’s model solutions.  In fact this morning’s NWS Sterling forecast discussion states that the “model trend for the weekend has become more progressive.” Translated this means the approaching cold front is going to push through here earlier and faster on Saturday and then continue well off the East Coast before slowing down.  Hence the surface low pressure that is forecast to form along the front will also be further offshore than previously thought as shown in this GFS model forecast graphic for Sunday evening:

Note the position of the surface low and the associated heavy rainfall indicated by the red and pink shading; it’s now well offshore Cape Hatteras instead of being in the Nags Head vicinity as during earlier runs.  This jog to the east looks like it will carry most of the previously promised rainfall out to sea with it.

We could still see some strong thunderstorms mid-afternoon Saturday if the sun peeks through the forecast cloud cover long enough to warm things up and destabilize the atmosphere.   Then high temperatures will fall from the mid-70′s on Saturday to the mid-60′s on Sunday and Monday under cloudy and somewhat rainy skies.  How much wetness we will actually get from this system is now in question, but we should receive more than the paltry amount we saw yesterday.

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