Rain Thursday, sun Friday and Saturday, and then a mess
Today’s weather will be focused around the rain provided by a cold front and an associated weak surface low pressure system that will scoot across North Carolina and off the coast by this evening. We will see somewhat more than a quarter-inch of rain which is not much in the big scheme of things but given how wet the ground is from the above average rainfall the past year puddles will be abundant today.
Friday and Saturday will turn out to be pleasant February days with sunshine and high temperatures in the mid-50′s (F) as the air behind the approaching cold front is Pacific in origin versus the Arctic air we shivered through last weekend. The average highs for Fredericksburg this time of year are near 50 degrees so we will be slightly above average the next two days.
Then comes Saturday night into Sunday. Another surface low pressure system approaches the area, this time from the Gulf of Mexico. The models have been in disarray regarding the track of this storm, and the exact track is always crucial to determining the effects that Fredericksburg receives. It also seems to me that the National Weather Service offices here in Virginia also have a bit of disagreement regarding the track of this low.
My own read of the models for the overall setup for this storm is that there won’t be enough cold air available for a significant snow storm for the city, which is in keeping with the overall pattern this winter. Having said that, Fredericksburg could still see rain turning over to snow before the precipitation shuts off late Sunday as the storm passes by off the coast. I’m not confident enough yet to say how much we may see here in the ‘Burg, but I do think the snow totals will quickly ramp up west of I-95 closer to the Blue Ridge mountains.