By Chris White

Weather Blog: Since Fredericksburg resides "in the seam" between the Richmond VA and Washington DC media markets this blog is a look at the weather from a Fredericksburg-centric point of view.

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Whence the rain?

The rain is coming…it just hasn’t arrived yet.  This afternoon (Thursday) will bring scattered showers and temperatures in the upper 50′s (F) and then overnight into Friday morning the steadier rain will move in courtesy of a cold front.  We are still in the pattern of surface low pressure systems moving from the Gulf of Mexico up the Ohio Valley, keeping west of the mountains and putting us in the warm sector.  Thus we won’t see any frozen stuff out of this system nor will we receive any snow out of the upper level systems known as Alberta Clippers since their track is staying well north of the Mid-Atlantic.  The clipper system that forecasters originally thought would bring us moisture over the weekend will only provide some clouds Saturday night and cooler temperatures (highs in the 40′s) Sunday and Monday.

This pattern shows no sign of changing anytime soon.  Even the longer range forecast models and atmospheric parameters are leaning away from any extended periods of Arctic air invading the ‘Burg over the next few weeks.  Of course that doesn’t mean we will totally escape snow this winter; that could still occur if the air temperatures and atmospheric moisture arrive here at the same time.  But we are beginning to move away from the part of the winter that can bring us 6-8 weeks of extended cold conditions.

Meanwhile the Gulf Coast states are still dealing with severe weather.  Yesterday brought seven confirmed tornadoes in eastern Texas and Louisiana, and this morning there is already a tornado watch in southern Mississippi and Alabama.  Severe weather could come to us early this spring as well – like last year – so make sure you circle March 20th on your calendar for the statewide Tornado Drill.  Awareness reduces risks!