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Heavy rain coming, and….yes, Fredericksburg, there may be (a little) snow on the way

RELATED: Help! It’s raining! What are we going to do?

The forecast models continue to focus on the approaching cold front and its seeming propensity to slow down as it reaches the Old Dominion.  This, coupled with a pretty strong disturbance in the upper levels of the atmosphere, will lead to several significant weather events between today (Tuesday) and Thursday morning.  The first will be the rain that is literally on our doorstep this morning ahead of the cold front.  Light precipitation will be with us most of the day with temperatures in the low 60′s (F) in advance of the front, which will finally crawl through here sometime this evening.

Wednesday will dawn cloudy and wet with the high temperature in the upper 50′s occurring early in the day before the really cold air filters in behind the front.  Steady rain will continue during the day followed by increasingly heavy rain after dark, resulting in rainfall totals by Thursday morning rising over the two inch mark as a strong surface low pressure forms along the stalled front and tracks across Virginia to the coast.

Then, the cold air arrives late Wednesday night before the coastal storm and its moisture departs our region early Thursday morning.  The result?  First take a peek at this graphic from the HPC:

Probability of at least 4" of snow between 7 a.m. Wed. and 7 a.m. Thurs.

Thus the mountains to our west have a chance at several inches of snow by Thursday morning.  Moreover, the ‘Burg will also see some snow by dawn that day, probably enough to cover grassy surfaces and vehicles with an inch or two of wet snow.  Given the warm ground temperatures and the heavy rain that will precede the white stuff I don’t think we’ll see any snow depths on the roads, but residents should be wary of slippery conditions during Thursday morning’s commute.  Yep, the first whitening of winter is on the way!

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