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Heavy rain on our doorstep

Current radar views show the heavy rain approaching Fredericksburg from the southwest courtesy of the approaching – and stalling – cold front and an easterly wind flow off the cool Atlantic waters.   We definitely have to watch out for flash flooding, and here’s a probability graphic from the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center that shows the band of slight risk for exceeding flash flood guidance:

If that stripe looks familiar it is; it’s basically the same area that received the abundance of rain from the remnants of tropical storm Lee a couple of weeks ago.

The official forecast calls for between 2 and 4 inches of rain by Saturday morning, with more rain totals to add to that over the weekend.  The chances of rain begin to dwindle by Monday but this pesky upper level low to our west will keep some showers in our area through the middle of next week.   With daily highs in the mid-70′s (F) and correspondingly high dew points (currently 72 degrees) it will feel tropical for a while.  Keep an eye on the water levels!!

BTW, today is the first day of astronomical autumn during which we – along with the rest of the world – will have 12 hours of sunlight …well, maybe without the clouds we would.

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