About the only thing one can guarantee with 100% certainty in an election over a year away and that is Sarah Palin will not beat Obama in the general election. Surely Obama would love Palin to win the GOP nomination, especially after she battles through the Republican field.
Can Palin win the GOP nomination. You would think that she wouldn’t because of her vulnerability in the general election, but ya know what….she can win it. She can raise more money than any of the other contenders, and that includes Romney who can also raise a lot of cash. Romney probably hopes she’ll run because she can defeat all the other social issue candidates, but that might be a mistake on his part as she might be able to beat him.
I think the comparison of Palin Vs. Michelle Bachmann is interesting. Bachmann is very much a social issues kind of candidate. She has the Tea Party support, same as Palin and she actually has a better resume. Palin quit her job as governor, Bachmann is still in office. Bachmann presents herself as a “more” mature candidate actually concerned about the issues she tackles, while Palin comes off as immature, writing on her hand, Criticizing Obama from issues in foreign policy to vegetables, referring to the media as “lamestream” which makes her sound more like a girl running for prom queen fighting all the haters who are just jealous because she has a prettier dress. Bachmann has the ability to ignore personal attacks, where as Palin makes national addresses declaring “blood libel” and engages with fueds with the likes of her son in law, David Letterman, stand up comedians, everyone in the media outside of Foxnews and basically anyone who’s ever criticized her. Bachmann appears to position herself to move up in politics while Palin appears to position herself to move up financially. Bachmann can interview outside of the friendly confines of Foxnews while Palin, after crashing and burning, sticks with Fox exclusively (who also pays her).
Don’t mistake me for a Bachmann fan. She has zero chance of winning the GOP nomination (and neither party should EVER nominate a congressional representative as they have low constituencies) but she does have more going for her on paper. That being said, if Palin actually runs then she’ll wipe the slate clean of Bachmann. Bachmann can’t match Palin’s name power and fanbase. Palin has an intense following of defenders (they defend more than actually support) who come screaming out of the woodwork anytime their heroine is ever criticized (by criticized, I mean when something factual is pointed out about her).
Off the greater point: I can’t wait to see Palin debate Republicans. Palin can’t debate. She can’t even do a sitdown interview with the real media and answer a simple question like “what newspaper do you read?” without later saying she was set up with “gotcha” questions. I can’t see Palin going toe to toe with people who are prepared with facts and are actually knowledgable on issues like Romney, Pawlenty and Huntsman (watch out for Huntsman. He might surprise you).
Of course all of this is speculative as Palin might not even run. Yeah, she’s going on a bus tour and she has that “fire in her belly” and she bought a house in Arizona which is better for a national campaign’s headquarters than Alaska. But, that house is closer to her daughter and Arizona is warmer than Alaska and very politically friendly toward Palin. This bus tour thing is a great way for her to maintain her exposure, make new headlines and then bow out right before the next book is to be published. She might be taking a few cues from Donald Trump who got the media all worked up then quit. I think Palin missed the limelight and this is a great way to generate it. She may not have that fire in her belly for a national campaign as it’s a lot of work which she’s never done nationally as she’s never built a national campaign before, and the pay is a lot lower than it is for being a rightwing darling.
But I don’t want her to run because Obama can beat her. I want her to run because it’s such great material. Please…Run, Baby, Run!!!
Here’s the rough.