Free Lance-Star reporter Chelyen Davis covers Virginia government.
New political polls show mixed results
Two new major polls are out today in the presidential and Virginia Senate race — and they show different results.
An NBC/Wall Street Journal/Marist poll indicates that after the first presidential debate and last week’s jobs numbers, Republican Mitt Romney has taken a slight lead over President Barack Obama in Virginia among likely voters, with Romney at 48 percent and Obama at 47 percent — pretty much a tie, and within the poll’s margin of error. Among registered voters in the poll, it’s really a tie, at 47-47.
But a Quinnipiac/New York Times/CBS poll also out today gives Obama the lead in Virginia, at 51 percent to Romney’s 46 percent, although most of those polled said they thought Romney won last week’s debate.
The two polls showed more agreement on Virginia’s U.S. Senate race — at least, they both gave the lead, although in different amounts, to Democrat Tim Kaine over Republican George Allen.
The Quinnipiac/NYT/CBS poll shows Kaine at 51 percent to Allen’s 44 percent. The NBC/WSJ/Marist poll pegs it as 47 percent for Kaine, 46 percent for Allen (again, practically a tie).
The Allen campaign has been doing some internal polling, which they also released today.
According to their numbers, done by McLaughlin and Associates, Allen leads Kaine, 49 percent to 46 percent.
The Allen poll shows both men winning 92 percent of voters who identify with their party.
It also indicates a Romney lead in Virginia, of 51 percent to Obama’s 44 percent.
The Allen poll surveyed 600 registered voters by telephone, and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percent. The Marist poll covered 1,428 adults, but 1,285 registered voters. It claims a margin of error of plus or minus 2.6 percent. The Quinnipiac poll surveyed 1,288 likely voters with a margin of error of plus or minus 2. 7 percent.
You can check out the internal numbers on the Marist poll here: http://maristpoll.marist.edu/1011-romney-by-one-point-in-tight-contest-in-virginia/
And more details for the Quinnipiac poll here: http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-centers/polling-institute/presidential-swing-states-%28co-va-and-wi%29/release-detail?ReleaseID=1804