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HIGH SCHOOL FOOTBALL: Here’s facts for playoff hopefuls

READ MORE: Check out Steve Franzello’s game capsules to preview each of tonight’s games before heading out to catch the action.

POLL: Make sure to vote in out Fans’ Choice “Game of the Week” poll. Let us know which game you think will be the best of the night.

LATEST STANDINGS: VHSL Power Points

 

How detailed is the process to track power points for just the six VHSL football regions which involve Fredericksburg-area schools?

Beyond knowing the records and results for the 19 local public school teams, you must also follow the 132 other schools in those six regions (the 6A–South, 5A–North, 4A–North, 4A–South, 3A–East and 1A–East).

Still counting? Good, because you’ll also need to follow 114 other in-state schools, plus the results from nine schools scattered in West Virginia, North Carolina and Maryland.

And if you’ve come this far, you might as well track all of Virginia’s 12 regions—there’s just 40 other schools to follow whose games otherwise have no affect on the 19 local teams.

Too much math? Not enough love for spreadsheets? That’s fine—we’ve already done the work for you.

So here’s a primer for Fredericksburg-area fans, and what they need to cheer for tonight, the final night of the high school football regular season. 

COLONIAL FORGE

Region: 6A–South (which is divided in half, with the top eight teams from Conferences 3 & 4 reaching the playoffs)

Starting point: The Eagles are third, behind Hylton and Varina.

How high? There is a theoretical path to No. 1, but it involves some improbable upsets. No. 2 is realistic, but the Eagles need Hylton to lose to Forest Park.

Cheer for: Forest Park (vs. Hylton), Highland (Varina), Briar Woods (Tuscarora), Brooke Point (Massaponax), Patrick Henry (Fleming), Stafford (Mountain View).

How low? Sixth, if everything goes against the Eagles.

RIVERBEND

Region: 6A–South

Starting point: Currently ninth, out of the playoffs.

How high? Seventh place remains in reach.

Cheer for: Riverbend, because the Bears must win to have a shot. They also need a loss by either Woodbridge (to Gar–Field) or Cosby (to Monacan).

How low? Out of the playoffs.

MASSAPONAX

Region: 5A–North (top 16 make the playoffs).

Starting point: Panthers are No. 1 in the region to start the day.

How high? There are enough rider points for the Panthers to clinch the top spot without even beating Brooke Point.

Cheer for: Courtland (JM), Albemarle (Orange), Chancellor (King George), Briar Woods (Tuscarora).

How low? Second, if Tuscarora beats Briar Woods.

NORTH STAFFORD

Region: 5A–North

Starting point: Wolverines, whose regular season is over, are fifth.

How high? Passing Stone Bridge is a long shot; best likely scenario is Tuscarora beating Briar Woods, lifting North Stafford into fourth.

Cheer for: Petersburg (vs. Colonial Heights), JM (Courtland), Brooke Point (Massaponax), Tuscarora (Briar Woods), Riverbend (Colonial Forge).

How low? Falling back even one spot to sixth is pretty unlikely.

MOUNTAIN VIEW

Region: 5A–North

Starting point: Sixth, just 0.14 behind North Stafford.

How high? Mountain View takes a hit playing one-win Stafford. A Briar Woods loss helps. Catching North Stafford would require all the points to break in the Wildcats’ favor.

Cheer for: Varina (vs. Highland), Lee–Davis (Atlee), Liberty (Fauquier), Massaponax (Brooke Point), Tuscarora (Briar Woods), Colonial Heights (Petersburg),Loudoun Valley (Woodgrove), Dominion (Potomac Falls), John Champe (Park View)

How low? It would take an amazingly bad night for Mountain View to finish worse than sixth.

BROOKE POINT

Region: 5A–North

Starting point: ’Hawks are 17th, currently out of the playoffs.

How high? Theoretically 11th place is within reach.

Cheer for: Brooke Point, because the only chance is a huge upset against Massaponax. Do that, and Brooke is almost certainly in the playoffs.

How low? Out of the playoffs.

COURTLAND

Region: 4A–North

Starting point: Fifth in region.

How high? As high as second, but only with a loss by Salem (to Pulaski) and George Washington (Martinsville).

Cheer for: The Cougars have a potential points advantage against fourth-place King George because Courtland plays a stronger opponent (James Monroe) than do the Foxes (Chancellor). Massaponax (Brooke Point) can also give a little help.

How low? Falling out of the top six is unlikely.

KING GEORGE

Region: 4A–North

Starting point: Fourth in region.

How high? Third place is in reach, if G.W. were to be upset and Courtland were to also lose.

Cheer for: Holding off Courtland is going to be tough. The best help for the Foxes is a James Monroe win over the Cougars.

How low? Even in the worst case, a first-round home game is just about a certainty.

EASTERN VIEW

Region: 4A–North

Starting point: Sixth in region.

How high? As high as second, if teams currently ahead lose.

Cheer for: Charlottesville (Powhatan), Chancellor (King George), Orange (Albemarle), Handley (James Wood), Spotsylvania (Caroline), Fauquier (Liberty), Monticello (Louisa)—and if all goes the Cyclones’ way they can pass Courtland and King George (even if those two win).

How low? It’s almost a lock that Eastern View finishes in the top eight.

LOUISA

Region: 4A–South

Starting point: Lions are tied for 17th, out of the playoffs.

How high? 12th within reach.

Cheer for: The Lions; a win over Monticello is almost enough to boost Louisa into the top 16. Rider points help, so also pull for Spotsylvania (Caroline), Courtland (JM), King George (Caroline) and Orange (Albemarle).

How low? Out of the playoffs.

CAROLINE

Region: 4A–South

Starting point: Caroline is 18th, currently out of the playoffs.

How high? In as a 15 or 16 seed.

Cheer for: Jamestown’s upset of Tabb last Saturday put one more team between Caroline and the postseason. Now the Cavaliers must beat Spotsylvania, and need Smithfield (Bruton) plus one other team to lose: Jamestown (to Poquoson), Nansemond River (Deep Creek) or J.R. Tucker (Hermitage).

How low? Out of the playoffs.

JAMES MONROE

Region: 3A–East

Starting point: Tied for third with Kettle Run.

How high? The scenario for JM to tie Loudoun Valley for second starts with James Wood beating Handley and Stafford beating Mountain View. Edging Kettle Run for third seems like the best possible result.

Cheer for: A win against Courtland would lock up a top-four finish. Also pull for: Eastern View (vs. Kettle Run), Stafford (Mountain View), Petersburg (Colonial Heights), Essex (Rappahannock), Chancellor (King George).

How low? Between JM, Kettle Run, Central and Poquoson, it’s really tight for Nos. 3–6. If the Jackets lose, any spot in that range is possible. Central plays Strasburg, perhaps the easiest (but least profitable) matchup of the four teams.

SPOTSYLVANIA

Region: 3A–East

Starting point: 13th, currently in the playoffs.

How high? A win against the Cavaliers could boost the Knights to 11th.

Cheer for: Even with a loss, the only way Spotsylvania falls out of the playoffs is by a rash of upsets. Wins by any three probably clinch the Knights’ spot: Godwin (T. Jefferson), Park View (Champe), Clark Co. (William Monroe), Warhill (New Kent), Henrico (Armstrong), Clover Hill (Huguenot).

How low? If they lose, the Knights could miss the playoffs.

WASHINGTON & LEE AND COLONIAL BEACH

Region: 1A–East

Starting point: W&L is ninth, Colonial Beach 11th.

How high? We combine the Eagles and Drifters because their fates are intertwined. The winner has a great chance to move up into the lop eight; the loser is on the road in the first round.

Cheer for: It’s one of the area’s best rivalries, with playoff seeding implications. Do you really need something else to cheer for?

How low? Both teams are in the playoffs, but the loser could face a long first-round road trip.

 

TONIGHT’S GAMES

Caroline at Spotsylvania, 7

Chancellor at King George, 7

Colonial Beach at Washington & Lee, 7

Colonial Forge at Riverbend, 7

Eastern View at Kettle Run, 7

Massaponax at Brooke Point, 7

Stafford at Mountain View, 7

James Monroe at Courtland, 7

Albemarle at Orange, 7:30

Monticello at Louisa, 7:30

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