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Bill Freehling is a business writer for The Free Lance-Star and Fredericksburg.com. This blog is on Fredericksburg-area business. Send an e-mail to Bill Freehling.

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Was Warren Buffett just lucky?

Fooled by RandomnessCOULD Warren Buffett’s success be due to chance?

That’s what Nassim Taleb suggests in an interview published in the latest edition of online magazine ai5000.

Taleb is a hedge fund manager, philosopher and author who wrote "The Black Swan" and "Fooled by Randomness." The latter makes the point that much of what we attribute to skill is often just luck. For example, if 1,500 people flip a coin 10 times and guess the outcome each time, the odds dictate that one of them will guess each flip correctly.

That person may claim to be a skilled coin-flip prognosticator. But in reality it’s just random luck, and that person isn’t likely to do any better than average if the exercise were repeated.

Click here to read the rest of this week’s Business Browser column.

Permalink: http://news.fredericksburg.com/businessbrowser/2010/02/14/was-warren-buffett-just-lucky/

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