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Lindley Estes is a business writer for The Free Lance-Star and This blog is on Fredericksburg-area business. Send an e-mail to Lindley Estes.

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More on foreclosures

Earlier this week I had an article looking at foreclosure and short sales in 2008 vs. 2007. It also looked at which neighborhoods in the Fredericksburg area were most affected. I’ve received numerous comments on that story.

One common comment was that the numbers don’t capture all the foreclosures in the area. This is true. Rather, it captured all the foreclosure and short sales that were listed as such in the Metropolitan Regional Information Systems Inc. database. In reality there were more foreclosures and short sales in 2008 than what MRIS listed. Still, the MRIS list offers an apples to apples comparison between 2007 and 2008. It also gives a good indication of which neighborhoods have been affected by the problems in the housing market.

Another common comment was that the raw numbers only tell you so much. These folks suggested that we also look at the total number of homes in each affected neighborhood so they could see the foreclosure/short sale rate. Here is that data for the 10 neighborhoods we listed in the FLS. The number represents how many homes or taxable lots there are in each neighborhood for each short sale or foreclosure sale in 2008. For example if there are 100 homes in a neighborhood and there were 10 foreclosure sales, the number would be 10. The smaller the number, the bigger the problem.

Stafford (These numbers are based on the total number of existing homes):

Alta Courthouse 24.2
Widewater Village 32.9
Potomac Hills 47.0
Stafford Lakes Village 85.7
Vista Woods 117.5
Aquia Harbour 129.9

Fredericksburg (This number is based on the building permits that have been issued, which roughly approximates the number of homes that have been built):

Idlewild 38.3

Spotsylvania (These numbers are based on the number of taxable lots in each neighborhood. This was all that was available to me. The numbers are more significant in a neighborhood like Salem Fields which is mostly built out than they are in a neighborhood like Lee’s Parke, which has many more taxable lots than existing homes–and therefore the following number for Lee’s Parke understates the foreclosure rate there.)

Lee’s Crossing 47.4
Lee’s Parke 94.9
Salem Fields 112.3


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